Unfortunately it seems extremely likely that Blagojevich will resign of his own accord. He keeps making statements about how he will be vindicated. And from the text of his recorded phone conversations, it is obvious that he either never thought he would get caught or legitimately didn't think he was doing anything wrong, somehow thinking he would have enough political capital to end up in the White House in 2016.
Certainly, he has not yet been convicted. But the case against him seems pretty strong. In any case, this scandal has affected his ability to govern (which was never great) and he cannot name Barack Obama's Senate successor.
There are three alternatives: the Illinois legislature schedules a special election; the Illinois legislature can impeach him, Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn succeeds him and names a Senator; or the Illinois Supreme Court declares him "incapacitated."
The first option seems the most democratic. Frankly I don't entirely understand why there are special elections held to replace congressmen but governors have the power to replace senators, especially since senators' terms are six years long. Depending on the class of senator, it could be six years before the next election. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, among others, has come out against this plan because he fears that the people of Illinois could be fed up with Democrats and elect a reform-minded Republican. As an Illinoisian, however, I don't know how likely that would be. The reason we re-elected Rod Blagojevich in 2006 (and why Barack Obama's 2004 victory was so overwhelming; remember Alan Keyes?) is that there is an utter lack of talent in the Illinois GOP. We always talk about the "Democratic machine" but I think there are enough politicians unconnected to this dirty network that we could find someone to fill the seat. The problem with this plan is whether it is actually possible to schedule special elections, as this action would override the governor's constitutional power. It is likely he would need to sign a bill, which is unlikely. I like to think that we could override such a veto (although he could do a pocket veto...). The other problem with this plan is that special elections are costly and Illinois is broke.
The second plan is the most constitutionally sound. Even though Quinn and Blagojevich were running mates in 2006, I don't think they are close. Quinn seems to be removed from the taint of Blagojevich. And even though impeachment proceedings could take a long time, they would probably be quicker than special elections. Once upon a time we had hoped that Blagojevich would appoint Obama's successor before the new class of senators was sworn in, giving our senator seniority. Until then, God bless Dick Durbin.
The third plan is very real. Attorney General Lisa Madigan has asked the Illinois Supreme Court to declare Blagojevich incapacitated. This declaration would remove him from office temporarily and Quinn would appoint the successor. Blagojevich would also be relieved of his duties relating to state contracts and state funds. She filed this motion because it could potentially be quicker than impeachment (although the timing is bad all around because of the holidays). Once again, I am not a constitutional scholar, but this action is completely unprecedented. I'm not entirely sure what it would mean.
Until this monkey business is resolved (and it would probably be years before a Blagojevich trial would wrap up), I guess we should take pride in being the most corrupt state in the nation, over even Louisiana? It looks like Jesse Jackson Jr. was indeed Senate Candidate 5, although he denies being aware of the deal to fundraise. Obama's White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emmanuel also evidently had some kind of conversations with Blagojevich regarding the Senate seat, but it is still unclear what the nature of these conversations was. Illinois is a circus. I'll be back in the "Land of Lincoln" in five days.
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